How Order Affects People’S Choices in Sequences of Independent Predictions

Five studies (N = 3,380) show that consumers tend to predict that an unlikely outcome will occur later in a sequence of events, versus earlier (e.g., third vs. first). We hypothesize that this effect occurs because consumers believe an unlikely outcome should happen at some point, even among independent events.


Jackie Silverman and Uri Barnea (2020) ,"How Order Affects People’S Choices in Sequences of Independent Predictions", in NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 48, eds. Jennifer Argo, Tina M. Lowrey, and Hope Jensen Schau, Duluth, MN : Association for Consumer Research, Pages: 1091-1095.


Jackie Silverman, University of Delaware, USA
Uri Barnea, Bocconi University, Italy


NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 48 | 2020

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