Trust the Polls? Neural and Recall Responses Provide Alternative Predictors of Political Outcomes
Given the lack of public trust in opinion polls, we propose novel approaches to supplement existing methods of predicting political outcomes. Neural similarity and recall of candidates in a televised presidential primary debate accurately forecasted election results. Additionally, the neural data predicted changes in the opinion polls following the debate.
Samuel B Barnett, Andres Campero, Ronen Zilberman, Chris Rose, Aaron Robinson, and Moran Cerf (2018) ,"Trust the Polls? Neural and Recall Responses Provide Alternative Predictors of Political Outcomes", in NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 46, eds. Andrew Gershoff, Robert Kozinets, and Tiffany White, Duluth, MN : Association for Consumer Research, Pages: 374-377.
Samuel B Barnett, Northwestern University, USA
Andres Campero, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA
Ronen Zilberman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA
Chris Rose, New York University, USA
Aaron Robinson, Northwestern University, USA
Moran Cerf, Northwestern University, USA
NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 46 | 2018
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Fuchun Zhan, University of Wisconsin - Madison, USA
Nancy Wong, University of Wisconsin - Madison, USA
Julie Anne Lee, University of Western Australia
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Minah Jung, New York University, USA
Silvia Saccardo, Carnegie Mellon University, USA
Ayelet Gneezy, University of California San Diego, USA
Leif D. Nelson, University of California Berkeley, USA
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Lucas Stich, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich
Martin Spann, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich
Gerald Häubl, University of Alberta, Canada