Squeezing a Dry Towel: Reducing Consumers’ Optimistic Prediction Biases

Across three experiments we examined how dividing an upcoming planning process into multiple steps would impact one’s optimistic prediction bias. We showed a decrease in the optimism bias when individuals described their plan in a relatively difficult, rather than easy, step. We identified two debiasing aids that qualified this relationship.



Citation:

Kyeong Sam Min and Hal Arkes (2011) ,"Squeezing a Dry Towel: Reducing Consumers’ Optimistic Prediction Biases ", in NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 38, eds. Darren W. Dahl, Gita V. Johar, and Stijn M.J. van Osselaer, Duluth, MN : Association for Consumer Research.

Authors

Kyeong Sam Min, University of New Orleans, USA
Hal Arkes, Ohio State University, USA



Volume

NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 38 | 2011



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