Why We Don't Learn to Accurately Forecast Our Feelings: How the Misremembering of Our Predictions Blinds Us to Our Past Forecasting Errors

Why do people persist in making erroneous affective forecasts? Our results suggest that this persistence is partly caused by people's biased recollections of their initial predictions. Individuals remembered their affective forecasts regarding both negative (e.g., preferred candidate losing the 2004 Presidential election) and positive events (e.g., favorite team reaching the 2005 Final Four) as less extreme than they actually were. Furthermore, even when individuals were able to accurately recall their forecasts, they did not spontaneously bring these to mind, and thus did not learn from the discrepancy between their affective forecasts and their actual experience unless prompted to do so.



Citation:

Rebecca K. Ratner, Tom Meyvis, and Jonathan Levav (2007) ,"Why We Don't Learn to Accurately Forecast Our Feelings: How the Misremembering of Our Predictions Blinds Us to Our Past Forecasting Errors", in NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 34, eds. Gavan Fitzsimons and Vicki Morwitz, Duluth, MN : Association for Consumer Research, Pages: 547-550.

Authors

Rebecca K. Ratner, University of Maryland
Tom Meyvis, New York University
Jonathan Levav, Columbia University



Volume

NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 34 | 2007



Share Proceeding

Featured papers

See More

Featured

People Overpredict the Benefit of Using Expensive Items and Appearing Rich in Friend-Making

Xilin Li, University of Chicago, USA
Christopher Hsee, University of Chicago, USA

Read More

Featured

H7. Too Risky to Be Luxurious: Stigmatized Luxury Product Attributes Can Weaken or Increase Social Risk to Determine Conspicuous Consumption

Jerry Lewis Grimes, Grenoble Ecole de Management
Yan Meng, Grenoble Ecole de Management

Read More

Featured

N12. Untangling Different Envy Episodes and their Effects on Brand Attitude

Kirla C Ferreira, EAESP-FGV, Brazil & City University of London, UK
Delane Botelho, EAESP-FGV
Suzana Valente Battistella-Lima, EAESP-FGV

Read More

Engage with Us

Becoming an Association for Consumer Research member is simple. Membership in ACR is relatively inexpensive, but brings significant benefits to its members.