Why We Don't Learn to Accurately Forecast Our Feelings: How the Misremembering of Our Predictions Blinds Us to Our Past Forecasting Errors

Why do people persist in making erroneous affective forecasts? Our results suggest that this persistence is partly caused by people's biased recollections of their initial predictions. Individuals remembered their affective forecasts regarding both negative (e.g., preferred candidate losing the 2004 Presidential election) and positive events (e.g., favorite team reaching the 2005 Final Four) as less extreme than they actually were. Furthermore, even when individuals were able to accurately recall their forecasts, they did not spontaneously bring these to mind, and thus did not learn from the discrepancy between their affective forecasts and their actual experience unless prompted to do so.



Citation:

Rebecca K. Ratner, Tom Meyvis, and Jonathan Levav (2007) ,"Why We Don't Learn to Accurately Forecast Our Feelings: How the Misremembering of Our Predictions Blinds Us to Our Past Forecasting Errors", in NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 34, eds. Gavan Fitzsimons and Vicki Morwitz, Duluth, MN : Association for Consumer Research, Pages: 547-550.

Authors

Rebecca K. Ratner, University of Maryland
Tom Meyvis, New York University
Jonathan Levav, Columbia University



Volume

NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 34 | 2007



Share Proceeding

Featured papers

See More

Featured

L11. Consumer Search Mode Produces Unintended Marketing Consequences

Dan King, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, USA
Sumitra Auschaitrakul, University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce

Read More

Featured

A4. Persuasive Messaging in the Modern Media Landscape: Character Assassinations in Social Network’s Echo Chambers

Niek Althuizen, ESSEC Business School
Sourjo Mukherjee, ESSEC Business School
Negin Latifi Kasani, ESSEC Business School

Read More

Featured

P12. Disclosure of Project Risk in Crowdfunding

Jooyoung Park, Peking University
KEONGTAE KIM, Chinese University of Hong Kong, China

Read More

Engage with Us

Becoming an Association for Consumer Research member is simple. Membership in ACR is relatively inexpensive, but brings significant benefits to its members.