High Chances and Close Margins: How Different Forecast Formats Shape Beliefs

People treat equivalent forecasts of the chances of an outcome (e.g., winning an election) as more extreme than forecasts of the equivalent margin of the outcome (e.g., vote share). This framing of forecasts shifts perceptions in voting, sports and statistical reasoning, and can entail downstream consequences for behavioral intentions.



Citation:

Oleg Urminsky, Sondre Skarsten, and Luxi Shen (2017) ,"High Chances and Close Margins: How Different Forecast Formats Shape Beliefs", in NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 45, eds. Ayelet Gneezy, Vladas Griskevicius, and Patti Williams, Duluth, MN : Association for Consumer Research, Pages: 336-340.

Authors

Oleg Urminsky, University of Chicago, USA
Sondre Skarsten, University of Chicago, USA
Luxi Shen, Chinese University of Hong Kong, China



Volume

NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 45 | 2017



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