The Unlikely Middle: Overestimation of Most and Least Likely Outcomes

Estimated likelihoods of repeated outcomes (coin flips) were elicited using a full-distribution procedure. Lay and statistically sophisticated respondents overestimate low probability outcomes (9 or 10 heads out of 10) versus moderate outcomes (3 or 4 out of 10). Effects of gains vs. losses and arousal are found in this context.



Citation:

Oleg Urminsky (2013) ,"The Unlikely Middle: Overestimation of Most and Least Likely Outcomes ", in NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 41, eds. Simona Botti and Aparna Labroo, Duluth, MN : Association for Consumer Research, Pages: .

Authors

Oleg Urminsky , University of Chicago, USA



Volume

NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 41 | 2013



Share Proceeding

Featured papers

See More

Featured

M3. #FOMO: How the Fear of Missing Out Drives Consumer Purchase Decisions

Michelle van Solt, Florida International University
Jessica Rixom, University of Nevada, Reno
Kimberly Taylor, Florida International University

Read More

Featured

Unexpected-Framing Effect: Impact of Framing a Product Benefit as Unexpected on Product Desire

Monica Wadhwa, INSEAD, Singapore
Christine Kim, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Amitava Chattopadhyay, INSEAD, Singapore
Wenbo Wang, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Read More

Featured

D6. How to Boast Appropriately When Word of Mouth Flows Internationally?

Xingyu Wang, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, China
Yaping Chang, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, China
Jun Yan, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, China

Read More

Engage with Us

Becoming an Association for Consumer Research member is simple. Membership in ACR is relatively inexpensive, but brings significant benefits to its members.