A Competition Among New Methods For Eliciting Probability Distributions

We compare the traditional method of eliciting probability distributions from laypeople with seven graphically-oriented interfaces. The most complicated of the graphical interfaces take less time than the traditional method, but produce more accurate results on both the individual and aggregate-level. Learning lowers the effort level for these complicated graphical interfaces.



Citation:

David Rothschild, Daniel G. Goldstein, and Florian Teschner (2013) ,"A Competition Among New Methods For Eliciting Probability Distributions ", in NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 41, eds. Simona Botti and Aparna Labroo, Duluth, MN : Association for Consumer Research.

Authors

David Rothschild, Microsoft Research
Daniel G. Goldstein, Microsoft Research, USA
Florian Teschner, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany



Volume

NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 41 | 2013



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