Squeezing a Dry Towel: Reducing Consumers’ Optimistic Prediction Biases

Kyeong Sam Min, University of New Orleans, USA
Hal Arkes, Ohio State University, USA
Across three experiments we examined how dividing an upcoming planning process into multiple steps would impact one’s optimistic prediction bias. We showed a decrease in the optimism bias when individuals described their plan in a relatively difficult, rather than easy, step. We identified two debiasing aids that qualified this relationship.
[ to cite ]:
Kyeong Sam Min and Hal Arkes (2011) ,"Squeezing a Dry Towel: Reducing Consumers’ Optimistic Prediction Biases ", in NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 38, eds. Darren W. Dahl, Gita V. Johar, and Stijn M.J. van Osselaer, Duluth, MN : Association for Consumer Research.