Arousal and Subjective Probabilities: an Alternative Interpretation of Wishful Thinking

Joachim Vosgerau, Carnegie Mellon University, USA
A wealth of psychological research indicates that people are unrealistically optimistic about future outcomes. In contrast to such a desirability bias, I propose that people can be both, optimistic and pessimistic about future outcomes. In four studies I show such optimism and pessimism occurs because people misattribute arousal to likelihoods
[ to cite ]:
Joachim Vosgerau (2011) ,"Arousal and Subjective Probabilities: an Alternative Interpretation of Wishful Thinking", in NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 38, eds. Darren W. Dahl, Gita V. Johar, and Stijn M.J. van Osselaer, Duluth, MN : Association for Consumer Research.