The Interpersonal Hot Hand Fallacy: How Similarity With Previous Winners Increases Subjective Probability of Winning

Sandra Laporte, HEC Paris, France
Gilles Laurent, HEC Paris, France
Organizers of promotional or state lotteries often feature a recent winner in their advertisements, depicted by a photograph and some personal information. We show that potential participants estimate they have higher odds of winning the next drawing when featured previous winners are similar to them (on age, gender or educational background). This effect, referred to herein as the “Interpersonal Hot Hand” fallacy, then increases their participation likelihood. It disappears when respondents are given objective information on their probability of winning—rare information in the context of real-world lotteries. We identify moderating variables.
[ to cite ]:
Sandra Laporte and Gilles Laurent (2010) ,"The Interpersonal Hot Hand Fallacy: How Similarity With Previous Winners Increases Subjective Probability of Winning ", in NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 37, eds. Margaret C. Campbell, Jeff Inman, and Rik Pieters, Duluth, MN : Association for Consumer Research, Pages: 628-629 .