Motivated Bias in Affective Forecasting

Eva Buechel, Carnegie Mellon University, USA
Carey Morewedge, Carnegie Mellon University, USA
Joachim Vosgerau, Carnegie Mellon University, USA
Affective forecasters exhibit an impact bias, overestimating the intensity and duration of their emotional reaction to future events. We suggest that forecasters make extreme forecasts to motivate themselves to produce desirable outcomes. In two studies, affective forecasts were more extreme when outcomes were more important, and when forecasters could influence an outcome than when it was determined but unknown. Subsequent studies found that the extremity of forecasts determined the amount of mental and physical effort forecasters expended to produce desirable outcomes. Errors in affective forecasting may thus not be solely cognitive in origin, but have a motivated component as well.
[ to cite ]:
Eva Buechel, Carey Morewedge, and Joachim Vosgerau (2010) ,"Motivated Bias in Affective Forecasting", in NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 37, eds. Margaret C. Campbell, Jeff Inman, and Rik Pieters, Duluth, MN : Association for Consumer Research, Pages: 762-762 .