Are Consumers Intuitively Bayesian? the Role of Consumer Metacognition

Dipayan Biswas, Bentley College, USA
Guangzhi Zhao, University of Kansas, USA
Donald Lehmann, Columbia University, USA
Dhruv Grewal, Babson College, USA
Using a consumer metacognition theoretical framework, we find support for our hypotheses that consumers update their beliefs consistent with Bayes’ theorem for difficult-to-compute numerical data with judgments being conservative than Bayesian predictions in the case of relatively easy-to-compute numerical data. These differential effects arise because consumers use a hypothesis-testing algorithm to process difficult-to-compute numerical data, while in the case of easy-to-compute numerical data, an averaging algorithm is employed. Moreover, these effects are moderated by data distinctiveness.
[ to cite ]:
Dipayan Biswas, Guangzhi Zhao, Donald Lehmann, and Dhruv Grewal (2009) ,"Are Consumers Intuitively Bayesian? the Role of Consumer Metacognition", in NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 36, eds. Ann L. McGill and Sharon Shavitt, Duluth, MN : Association for Consumer Research, Pages: 691-692.