The Interpersonal Hot Hand Fallacy: Endorsement of Promotional Games By Previous Winners

Sandra Laporte, HEC Paris, France
To advertise a promotional lottery or sweepstake, it is common to feature previous winners, with some personal information. We show that respondents estimate their odds of winning the next drawing to be higher when featured previous winners are similar to them, although the two drawings are obviously independent from each other. This effect is robust across different operational definitions of similarity, i.e. age, gender or educational background, and disappears when the number of previous winners increases. These findings extend the well-known hot hand fallacy from the intrapersonal to the interpersonal domain.
[ to cite ]:
Sandra Laporte (2009) ,"The Interpersonal Hot Hand Fallacy: Endorsement of Promotional Games By Previous Winners", in NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 36, eds. Ann L. McGill and Sharon Shavitt, Duluth, MN : Association for Consumer Research, Pages: 1031-1032.