Effects of Amount of Information on Overconfidence

Claire Tsai, University of Chicago
Reid Hastie, University of Chicago
Joshua Klayman, University of Chicago

Title: Effects of amount of information on overconfidence

 

Authors: Tsai, Claire; Klayman, Joshua; Hastie, Reid

 

Affiliation: The University of Chicago

 

Abstract:

 

When a person makes a judgment based on evidence and assesses confidence in that judgment, what is the effect of providing more judgment-relevant information?  Findings by Oskamp (1965) and by Slovic and Corrigan (1977) suggest that more information leads to increasing overconfidence. , We replicate the finding that receiving more information leads judges to increase their confidence even when their predictive accuracy does not improve. We identify some likely candidates for cues people use to judge confidence that do not correlate well with actual accuracy.
[ to cite ]:
Claire Tsai, Reid Hastie, and Joshua Klayman (2006) ,"Effects of Amount of Information on Overconfidence", in NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 33, eds. Connie Pechmann and Linda Price, Duluth, MN : Association for Consumer Research, Pages: 181-184.