It Happens Because I’M Watching It: the Effect of Observing an Uncertain Event on Probability Estimation

Amin Attari, University of Kansas, USA
Promothesh Chatterjee, University of Kansas, USA
Frank Cabano, University of Kansas, USA
This research investigates whether observing the occurrence of an uncertain event affects probability estimation of the event’s outcome. Across four experiments, we show that consumers overestimate the likelihood of a positive outcome occurring when they observe the event unfolding in front of them.
[ to cite ]:
Amin Attari, Promothesh Chatterjee, and Frank Cabano (2017) ,"It Happens Because I’M Watching It: the Effect of Observing an Uncertain Event on Probability Estimation", in NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 45, eds. Ayelet Gneezy, Vladas Griskevicius, and Patti Williams, Duluth, MN : Association for Consumer Research, Pages: 507-508.