It Would Happen Because I’M Watching It: the Effect of Watching an Uncertain Event on Overestimating Subjective Probability

Amin Attari, University of Kansas, USA
Promothesh Chatterjee, University of Kansas, USA
We investigate how watching an uncertain event can affect the probability estimation of that event. We propose that consumers overestimate the likelihood of an uncertain outcome, when they watch the unfolding event in front of them. This situational aspect of probability estimation has not been estimated in prior research.
[ to cite ]:
Amin Attari and Promothesh Chatterjee (2015) ,"It Would Happen Because I’M Watching It: the Effect of Watching an Uncertain Event on Overestimating Subjective Probability", in NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 43, eds. Kristin Diehl and Carolyn Yoon, Duluth, MN : Association for Consumer Research, Pages: 776-776.