The Unlikely Middle: Overestimation of Most and Least Likely Outcomes

Oleg Urminsky , University of Chicago, USA
Estimated likelihoods of repeated outcomes (coin flips) were elicited using a full-distribution procedure. Lay and statistically sophisticated respondents overestimate low probability outcomes (9 or 10 heads out of 10) versus moderate outcomes (3 or 4 out of 10). Effects of gains vs. losses and arousal are found in this context.
[ to cite ]:
Oleg Urminsky (2013) ,"The Unlikely Middle: Overestimation of Most and Least Likely Outcomes ", in NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 41, eds. Simona Botti and Aparna Labroo, Duluth, MN : Association for Consumer Research.