A Competition Among New Methods For Eliciting Probability Distributions

David Rothschild, Microsoft Research
Daniel G. Goldstein, Microsoft Research, USA
Florian Teschner, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany
We compare the traditional method of eliciting probability distributions from laypeople with seven graphically-oriented interfaces. The most complicated of the graphical interfaces take less time than the traditional method, but produce more accurate results on both the individual and aggregate-level. Learning lowers the effort level for these complicated graphical interfaces.
[ to cite ]:
David Rothschild, Daniel G. Goldstein, and Florian Teschner (2013) ,"A Competition Among New Methods For Eliciting Probability Distributions ", in NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 41, eds. Simona Botti and Aparna Labroo, Duluth, MN : Association for Consumer Research.