Outcome Neglect: How Guessing Heuristics Supersede Expected Value

Oleg Urminsky, University of Chicago, USA
Adelle Yang, University of Chicago, USA
When people guess an amount they could win (in lab and field studies), they neglect the fact that higher guesses represent the same probability of winning but a higher conditional payoff. This finding suggests that utility maximization is only one of many potential heuristics, easily superseded by other salient strategies.
[ to cite ]:
Oleg Urminsky and Adelle Yang (2012) ,"Outcome Neglect: How Guessing Heuristics Supersede Expected Value", in NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 40, eds. Zeynep G├╝rhan-Canli, Cele Otnes, and Rui (Juliet) Zhu, Duluth, MN : Association for Consumer Research, Pages: 284-287.